US September CPI forecast at 3.6-3.7% — gasoline lifts headline, core near 2.4%, out October 14
US September CPI is due Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET (9:30 p.m. in Seoul). Forecasts put headline inflation at 3.6-3.7% year over year, up from 3.4% in August, with core (excluding food and energy) near 2.4-2.5%, little changed. The gap is gasoline: AAA's September average of $4.33 a gallon was a record for the month, and the Cleveland Fed nowcast has headline up 0.53% on the month but core up only 0.20%. It is the last CPI before the Fed's October 27-28 meeting, following a September 16 hike to 3.75-4.00%. A core reading of 0.3% or more would reopen the hike debate.
The three lines
- Release — October 14, 8:30 a.m. ET. Headline seen at 3.6-3.7%, up from 3.4% in August
- Driver — record September gasoline at $4.33; core expected near 2.4-2.5%
- Stakes — last CPI before the October 27-28 Fed meeting; core at 0.3%+ revives hike talk
Key questions
- When is September 2026 CPI released
- **Wednesday, October 14, 2026, 8:30 a.m. ET.** | Date | Release | |---|---| | Oct. 14 | September CPI; Fed Beige Book | | Oct. 15 | September PPI | | Oct. 27-28 | FOMC, decision Oct. 28 | | Oct. 29 | September PCE; Q3 GDP advance |
- September 2026 CPI forecast
- **Headline 3.6-3.7%, core 2.4-2.5%.** | Source (as of) | Headline m/m | Headline y/y | Core m/m | Core y/y | |---|---|---|---|---| | Cleveland Fed nowcast (Oct. 7) | 0.53% | 3.60% | 0.20% | 2.39% | | Continuum Economics (Sept. 29) | 0.6% | 3.7% | 0.2% | 2.4% | | Street consensus (Oct. 6) | — | ~3.7% | — | — | | August actual | 0.4% | 3.4% | 0.3% | 2.4% |
- How gas prices affect CPI
- **Gasoline splits headline from core.** | Item | Figure | |---|---| | September average (AAA) | $4.33/gal, a September record | | A year earlier (Oct. 7, 2025) | $3.16 | | August CPI gasoline | +27.4% y/y | | CPI weight | About 3-4% | | September energy (Continuum est.) | About +5.5% m/m |
US inflation is expected to climb back toward the high 3s — but the number the Fed will watch is a different one. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases September CPI on Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET, 9:30 p.m. in Seoul. Forecasts put headline inflation at 3.6-3.7% year over year, up from 3.4% in August. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, is expected near 2.4-2.5%, about where it was. Gasoline is what pulls the two apart. The Fed raised rates on September 16 for the first time this year, and this is the last inflation print before its October 27-28 meeting.
1. Where forecasts cluster
| Source (as of) | Headline m/m | Headline y/y | Core m/m | Core y/y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Fed nowcast (Oct. 7) | 0.53% | 3.60% | 0.20% | 2.39% |
| Continuum Economics (Sept. 29) | 0.6% | 3.7% | 0.2% | 2.4% |
| Pantheon Macroeconomics | 0.6% | — | 0.2% | — |
| Kalshi market pricing (Oct. 6) | — | 3.63% | — | — |
| August actual | 0.4% | 3.4% | 0.3% | 2.4% |
Headline up 0.5-0.6% on the month, core up 0.2%: the expected rise comes almost entirely from energy.
2. Why gasoline
| Item | Figure |
|---|---|
| September average (AAA) | $4.33/gal — a September record, 50 cents above the 2023 high of $3.83 |
| Oct. 1 / Oct. 7 | $4.41 / $4.37 |
| A year earlier (Oct. 7, 2025) | $3.16 |
| August CPI gasoline | +3.9% m/m, +27.4% y/y |
| CPI weight | About 3-4% |
| Seasonal factor | Prices usually fall in September, so a rise is amplified after adjustment |
The driver is crude. Tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and Hurricane Isaias's shut-in of Gulf of Mexico output kept Brent above $100 a barrel (see "Why oil won't fall below $100"). Gasoline's weight is small, but a 7-10% monthly jump adds roughly 0.3 percentage point to headline CPI.
3. Core is what matters to the Fed
| Core m/m | Market reading |
|---|---|
| 0.2% or less | A gasoline-driven blip; an October hold is likely |
| 0.3% or more | Energy costs spreading to other goods; October hike debate reopens |
The Fed raised its target range by a quarter point to 3.75-4.00% on September 16, unanimously, 12-0; the median dot for end-2026 is 4.1%. Signs of a sharply slower September jobs market have since cooled October hike bets, though market pricing still leans toward one more hike by December. US rate expectations travel through Treasury yields and the dollar into Korean stocks and the won (see "Why the won-yen rate hit an 18-year low").
The same week brings third-quarter bank earnings: JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo on October 13, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America on October 14. FactSet data point to bank earnings growth of about 10%.
4. What remains unclear
- Hike odds: reports put October hike odds anywhere from 17-20% (CME FedWatch, Oct. 5-8) to near 70%. Read core first after the release rather than relying on one number.
- Gasoline turning: pump prices eased from $4.41 to $4.37 in early October — not in the September data.
- Next prints: PPI on October 15, PCE on October 29. PCE is the Fed's official target gauge.
- Midterms: with elections on November 3, gas prices are political; policy moves such as Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases remain possible.
Sources
- Admiral Markets — US CPI September 2026: Forecast, Core CPI and Fed Odds
- Continuum Economics — Preview: Due October 14 - U.S. September CPI
- Seeking Alpha — Pantheon sees September CPI rising 0.6% as gasoline prices jump
- JorgAI — September 2026 CPI Preview: Oct 14 Release, Forecast, Fed
- CNBC — Earnings season kicks into high gear as big banks report next week