US July PPI came in flat at 0.0% on August 13, 2026 — one core measure rose 0.4%
US July producer prices were unchanged at 0.0% month on month and rose 4.7% year on year in the August 13, 2026 release, both below forecast, but the core measure excluding food, energy and trade services rose 0.4% — four times its June pace
The three lines
- Headline 0.0% MoM (forecast +0.2%) and 4.7% YoY (forecast +4.9%, June 5.5%)
- Core excluding food, energy and trade services rose 0.4% MoM, up from 0.1% in June
- Final demand goods fell 0.7%, services rose 0.2% and construction rose 2.2% — the components pulled in opposite directions
Key questions
- What was the US July PPI number?
- Zero. Final demand producer prices were unchanged month on month on a seasonally adjusted basis, against a +0.2% consensus. On an unadjusted 12-month basis prices rose 4.7%, down from 5.5% through June and below the 4.9% forecast. The release came on the morning of August 13, 2026 US Eastern time — the night of August 13 in Korea.
- Why is a 0.4% core number being reported at the same time?
- Because the BLS publishes two core measures. Stripping food and energy alone gives +0.2% for July. Stripping food, energy and trade services — the measure the release itself emphasises — gives +0.4%, up from 0.1% in June. The jump was driven largely by portfolio management fees, which rose 6.5% in the month. The headline sat at zero because a 0.7% fall in final demand goods, led by gasoline, offset gains elsewhere.
- What does this mean for interest rates?
- On the day, markets traded the headline: a softer print weakens the case for a September hike, and the S&P 500 closed at a record 7,798.99. But the Fed's policy gauge is neither CPI nor PPI — it is the PCE price index, and several PCE components draw their source prices directly from the PPI. Portfolio management fees are one of them. So the 0.4% core reading can resurface in the next PCE release even though the headline read as benign.
Consumer prices on the night of August 12. Producer prices on the night of August 13. Two releases, two days, both below forecast.
0.0%. No change on the month. The consensus was +0.2%.
And inside the same release, another number: 0.4%.
1. Everything that was published
| Measure | July | Forecast | June |
|---|---|---|---|
| Headline, MoM | 0.0% | +0.2% | -0.1% |
| Headline, YoY | 4.7% | +4.9% | 5.5% |
| Core ex food & energy, MoM | +0.2% | +0.3% | — |
| Core ex food & energy, YoY | 4.2% | 4.1% | — |
| Core ex food, energy & trade services, MoM | +0.4% | — | +0.1% |
Read the table down the middle column and it is clear why markets relaxed: four of five lines landed below forecast or below the prior month.
Read the bottom row on its own and something else appears. It quadrupled in a month.
2. What produced a zero
The headline did not move because two forces cancelled.
| Component | July MoM |
|---|---|
| Final demand goods | -0.7% |
| Final demand services | +0.2% |
| Final demand construction | +2.2% |
Goods fell 0.7%, with falling gasoline prices cited as the main cause. Construction rose 2.2%. The zero is where those met.
Put plainly: prices did not stop. Fuel got cheaper while other things got more expensive.
3. Why there are two core numbers
The BLS publishes two core measures side by side, and they answer different questions.
| Measure | What it removes | July MoM |
|---|---|---|
| Core A | Food, energy | +0.2% |
| Core B | Food, energy, trade services | +0.4% |
Trade services are the margins wholesalers and retailers add. Those margins swing violently whenever goods prices move fast — a sharp drop in crude briefly widens a fuel retailer's margin, and the statistics record that as a services price increase. Stripping it out is meant to reveal the underlying trend, which is why the BLS release itself leads on Core B.
Core B rose 0.4%, and the largest single contributor was portfolio management fees, up 6.5% in the month. Those fees are charged against assets under management — so as equity indexes set records through August, that line rose inside the inflation statistics.
4. Why the 0.4% cannot simply be set aside
The Federal Reserve's policy gauge is the PCE price index, not CPI and not PPI. But several PCE components take their source prices from the PPI rather than the CPI — portfolio management fees and parts of healthcare among them, because those are not billed to consumers in a way the CPI can capture.
The chain runs:
- PPI records portfolio management fees up 6.5%
- That price enters the PCE calculation
- Core PCE prints hotter than expected
- The Fed reads a firmer inflation trend
Which is how "PPI came in at zero" and "the next PCE will not be as soft as this looks" can both be true. On the day, equities traded the first sentence.
5. The market response, and the lag into Asia
| Index | Aug 13 close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,798.99 | +0.65% (record) |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,803.03 | +0.81% |
| Dow Jones | 53,839.99 | +0.13% |
For readers in Asia, the sequencing matters. The release landed on the night of August 13 Korea time, after the Seoul close. The KOSPI's 3.56% gain to 6,813.34 that day reflected the previous night's CPI, not this print. The first Korean session to price the PPI result was August 14.
6. What is unresolved
Some outlets put June headline PPI at -0.1% and others at 0.0%, apparently a revision difference that could not be confirmed. The table uses the more widely reported -0.1%.
The 5.7% gasoline decline and the 6.5% rise in portfolio management fees were each cited by more than one outlet but not checked against the release text.
The next marker is late August: the PCE release, where July's 0.4% core reading may reappear, and Jackson Hole, where the Fed will respond to a month of data — payrolls at -23,000, CPI at 3.4%, PPI at 0.0% — that has all pointed the same way.
Sources
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Producer Price Indexes, July 2026
- Seeking Alpha — PPI inflation shows no change in July reading
- TechTimes — July PPI flat headline hides 0.4% core surge heading into August 26 PCE
- Yahoo Finance — S&P 500 notches record high after soft inflation data
- Investing.com — US July producer price index unchanged on the month