Pax Silica letter — the US tells 35 countries to pick one AI bloc
Reuters reported on August 14, 2026 that it had reviewed an undated US State Department draft letter to 35 governments. Its message is that membership of the American-led Pax Silica framework cannot be held alongside China's World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization. Because the draft is undated, it is not known when or whether it will be sent. Around two dozen countries are already Pax Silica members
The three lines
- Letter — a State Department draft addressed to the 35 signatories of the June 25 Joint Statement on AI Opportunity
- Demand — no simultaneous membership of Pax Silica and China's WAICO. 'To be part of everything is to be part of nothing'
- Members — Japan, Australia, South Korea and Kazakhstan are named Pax Silica members among roughly two dozen
Key questions
- What is Pax Silica?
- An **AI supply-chain framework** the United States established last year. The distinctive part is what it bundles: **AI models, semiconductors and critical minerals**, treated as one supply chain to be secured together. Members gain access to shared investment opportunities in AI projects and, in return, coordinate export controls. About **two dozen countries** have joined; Japan, Australia, South Korea and Kazakhstan are the confirmed members in reporting. Separately, **35 countries** signed the **Joint Statement on AI Opportunity** on June 25, 2026 — a symbolic declaration rather than a binding commitment. Those 35 are the addressees of this letter.
- What is China offering instead?
- The **World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization (WAICO)**, announced by Xi Jinping at a Shanghai conference in **July 2026**. The offer has a different shape from the American one. Pax Silica grants **access** — a seat at shared investment in AI projects. China offers **open-weight models**: downloadable weights a country can run on its own hardware, with no licence negotiation and no per-token billing. For states without the capital to train frontier models, that is a materially different proposition. On August 19, Beijing framed the dispute in terms of **digital sovereignty**, arguing that every country has the right to choose partners according to its own conditions and development needs.
- Which countries are caught in the middle?
- All 35 signatories are addressees, and the roughly two dozen who are already Pax Silica members face the sharper version of the question. The substance, per reporting, is that signatories would be asked to **limit Chinese AI chips, cloud infrastructure and large language models in government and critical-sector deployments**. The country that appears to have triggered the letter is **Kazakhstan**, which joined Pax Silica in June — the first Central Asian accession — and then also joined WAICO, making it the only known dual member. Kazakhstan holds critical minerals, one of the three pillars Pax Silica bundles. That causal account is press interpretation, not a documented fact.
International cooperation on AI is being restructured as a binary choice.
On August 14, 2026, Reuters reported that it had reviewed a US State Department draft letter addressed to 35 governments. The message reduces to one sentence.
You cannot belong to both the American framework and the Chinese one.
1. Three names, easily confused
| Name | What it is | Size |
|---|---|---|
| Pax Silica | US-led AI supply-chain framework, with real obligations | about 24 countries |
| Joint Statement on AI Opportunity | Signed June 25, 2026. Non-binding declaration | 35 countries |
| WAICO | China-led World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization, announced July 2026 in Shanghai | unverified |
The letter's addressees are the middle row — the 35. What it asks them to choose between is the first row and the third.
Pax Silica means "the peace of silicon." What makes it unusual is what it bundles:
AI models + semiconductors + critical minerals
The three are treated as a single supply chain to be secured jointly. Members get access to shared investment in AI projects; in return they align export controls with one another.
2. What the draft actually says
Two sentences have been reported from the text.
"Signature of the Pax Silica Declaration is not merely a membership subscription, but a commitment." "To be part of everything is to be part of nothing."
China is not named. The phrasing used instead is "duplicative initiatives whose expectations conflict with our own."
The substance is specific. Signatories would be asked to limit, in government and critical-sector deployments:
| Category | Restriction |
|---|---|
| AI chips | Chinese accelerators |
| Cloud | Chinese-operated infrastructure services |
| Large language models | Chinese models in government and critical sectors |
One qualifier carries the whole story — the draft is undated. Reuters could not establish when it is meant to be sent, or whether it will be amended first. The State Department declined to comment on purportedly leaked internal documents.
This is a text under consideration, not a policy in force.
3. The two offers are different in kind
The easiest thing to miss in this contest is that the two sides are selling different products.
| Pax Silica (US) | WAICO (China) | |
|---|---|---|
| What you get | Access to joint investment in AI projects | Open-weight models |
| Form | Membership, partnership | Downloadable weight files |
| What is asked | Export-control alignment | Not specified in available reporting |
| Announced | Last year | July 2026, Shanghai |
The US offers standing. China offers the artefact.
That difference bites hardest in countries without the capital to train frontier models. An open-weight model can be loaded onto a national data centre and run immediately — no licence negotiation, no per-token billing. The question of what "open" actually grants, which this page examined on August 7 in What an open-source AI model is, becomes an instrument of foreign policy here.
On August 19, Beijing responded in the language of digital sovereignty: every country has the right to choose partners according to its own conditions and development needs. The concept this page set out on August 8 in What sovereign AI is has entered the vocabulary of bloc politics.
4. Kazakhstan — the case that appears to have prompted this
Outlets converge on one trigger.
Kazakhstan joined Pax Silica in June 2026 — the first Central Asian accession. It subsequently also joined WAICO, making it the only country known to hold both memberships.
Kazakhstan is mineral-rich. It sits on one of the three pillars Pax Silica bundles. Its incentive to hedge is large, and for Washington a hedge that goes unanswered becomes a template.
That said, the causal claim — the letter exists because of Kazakhstan — is press interpretation. It is not documented.
5. What a signatory is actually being asked
For the 35, and especially for the roughly two dozen already inside Pax Silica, the decision splits three ways.
| Strand | Issue |
|---|---|
| Procurement | How far the restriction on Chinese chips, cloud and models extends into government and critical infrastructure |
| Industry | For chip-producing signatories, China is a major customer. Alignment collides with revenue |
| Cost of neutrality | In a binary structure, hedging itself becomes the expensive option |
No signatory government had made its response public as of August 24, 2026.
6. What is not confirmed
- Whether the letter is sent — the draft is undated, and Reuters could not confirm dispatch or amendment.
- The membership list — not published. Only Japan, Australia, South Korea and Kazakhstan are confirmed in reporting.
- Government responses — none public at the time of writing.
- WAICO's substance — structure, accession procedure and membership could not be verified.
- The Kazakhstan trigger — press interpretation, not documented.
- Next checkpoint — actual dispatch of the letter, and the first official response from any of the 35.
Sources
- CNBC — U.S. to tell partners they must pick sides in AI race with China: Reuters
- The Next Web — Pax Silica: US tells 35 countries to pick a side on AI
- IBTimes UK — US Tells 35 Allies To Choose Sides as Washington Threatens To Expel Anyone Joining China's Bloc
- PYMNTS — US Weighs Banning Nations From Pax Silica If They Join China AI Group
- China Global South Project — China Urges Respect for Digital Sovereignty in AI Race
- GMA News Online — Pax Silica or not: US to tell partners they must pick sides in AI race with China
- Rio Times — Draft US Letter Tells 35 Partners to Pick an AI Coalition