Bank of Korea expected to hold at 3.00% on October 22, 2026 — and to hike again in November
The Bank of Korea is widely expected to keep its base rate at 3.00% on October 22, 2026: 20 of 21 economists surveyed by the Korea Economic Daily forecast a hold, and 18 expect a hike on November 26. September inflation slowed to 2.9%, but oil above $100 and the Fed's September hike to 3.75-4.00% keep pressure on
The three lines
- October — hold at 3.00% expected by 20 of 21 economists
- November — 18 of 21 see a hike on Nov 26; terminal 3.50% (11) or 3.75% (7)
- Why — CPI eased to 2.9%, but Brent near $110, a wider US gap and sticky expectations
Key questions
- Bank of Korea rate decision October 2026
- **October 22; a hold at 3.00% is expected.** | Item | Detail | |---|---| | Meeting | October 22, 2026 | | Current rate | 3.00% | | Recent hikes | July and August, 25bp each | | Hold forecast | 20 of 21 economists | | Next meeting | November 26 |
- Korea terminal interest rate forecast
- **3.50% is the majority view; 3.75% is gaining.** | Terminal | Respondents | |---|---| | 3.50% | 11 (52.4%) | | 3.75% | 7 (33.3%) |
- Korea US interest rate gap
- **0.75 to 1.00 percentage point**, comparing the BOK's 3.00% with the Fed's 3.75-4.00% target range after its September hike.
Korea's central bank decides rates on October 22, 2026, and markets have one answer: pause now, hike next month. Of 21 economists polled by the Korea Economic Daily, 20 expect the Bank of Korea to hold at 3.00% and 18 expect a hike on November 26. Brokers describe it as a "hawkish hold": no change, but a clear signal that more is coming.
For readers outside Korea: the BOK raised rates in July and again on August 27, 2026, unusual back-to-back hikes driven by inflation above 3% and a booming chip sector.
1. Where rates stand
| Date | Decision | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| July 2026 | +25bp | 2.75% |
| August 27, 2026 | +25bp | 3.00% |
| October 22, 2026 | Hold expected | 3.00% |
| November 26, 2026 | Hike expected by most | 3.25% (forecast) |
Governor Shin Hyun-song told lawmakers on October 12 that the bank had "bought some time." The Fed's September hike to 3.75-4.00% eased pressure on Seoul to follow immediately.
2. Inflation fell, so why expect more hikes?
| Indicator | August | September |
|---|---|---|
| CPI (y/y) | 3.1% | 2.9% |
| Core CPI | 3.4% | 2.8% |
| 1-year inflation expectations | — | Above 2.5% |
| Brent (Oct 16 close) | — | $109.86, highest since May 19 |
| WTI (Oct 16 close) | — | $101.41 |
| Fed funds target | — | 3.75-4.00% |
Three forces outweigh the softer CPI. Oil: with the Strait of Hormuz disrupted and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, Brent crossed $110 intraday on October 16; Kiwoom's Ahn Ye-ha says a terminal 3.75% is possible if that persists. Expectations: households expecting inflation above 2.5% raise second-round risk. Growth: the chip boom lets the economy absorb tighter policy, though Yonsei's Choi Sang-yup warns it has not spread to domestic demand.
3. The survey in numbers
| Question | Answer |
|---|---|
| Hold in October | 20 (95.2%) |
| Next hike November 26 | 18 (85.7%) |
| Terminal 3.50% | 11 (52.4%) |
| Terminal 3.75% | 7 (33.3%) |
| Year-end won 1,300-1,350 per dollar | 18 (85.7%) |
| Fed hike in December | 20 (95.2%) |
4. What to watch
- October 21: September producer prices and October 1-20 trade data.
- October 22: decision and press conference; the number of hike dissents is the first read on November.
- Oil: whether $100 holds decides between 3.50% and 3.75%.
- All forecasts here are as of October 18-19 reporting.
Sources
- Korea Economic Daily — BOK to hold in October, hike likely in November (2026-10-18)
- Moneys via Sidae — October MPC hold likely, hawkish signal in focus (2026-10-19)
- Financial News — BOK bought time by hiking before the US (2026-10-13)
- NBC News — Tech stocks erase $1 trillion as oil surges to $110 (2026-10-16)