Why the US 10-year Treasury yield hit 5% again — the 2-year jumped more, and the close was 4.98%

The US 10-year Treasury yield touched 5% again, but it did so intraday. The official close was 4.98%. On Tuesday, November 10, 2026 (US time), October consumer prices came in at 0.4% month on month with core at 0.3%, and Treasuries sold off. The 10-year traded as high as 5.01% to 5.02% before ending the day at 4.98% on the Treasury's own daily yield curve, up 0.10 percentage point from 4.88%.

The 10-year was not the day's biggest mover. The 2-year rose from 4.56% to 4.73%, a 0.17-point jump that reports described as the largest since April 2025. Then the market stopped: Wednesday, November 11 was Veterans Day, and the US bond market was closed while stock exchanges stayed open. The last valid number is still the November 10 close of 4.98%.

1. Did it cross 5%? Intraday versus close

Headlines differ because they quote different moments.

The Treasury computes a par yield curve from late-day quotes every trading day, and the Federal Reserve's H.15 release uses the same series. On that measure the 10-year did not close above 5% on November 10. The last close above 5% was October 28, at 5.05%.

The shorter the maturity, the larger the move. The gap between the 10-year and the 2-year narrowed from 32 to 25 basis points. Market-quote reports put the 2-year rise at 18 to 19 basis points (4.736% at CNBC, 4.731% at Investing.com). On either measure it is the biggest since April 9, 2025, when the 2-year rose 20 basis points, from 3.71% to 3.91%, during the tariff shock.

There was no bond trading on November 11. SIFMA, the industry body that sets the US fixed-income holiday calendar, lists Veterans Day as a holiday, and the Treasury's daily table stops at November 10. Stocks traded as usual: the S&P 500 rose 1.31% to 7,619.38 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.60% to 25,466.19. That rally was not a response to lower yields. It came on a day with no yield signal at all, led by a rebound of about 5% in Nvidia and other chip stocks. Bond trading resumes on Thursday, November 12.

2. Why 5%: four causes that can be confirmed

Inflation broadened. Core CPI rose 0.3% in October, the third month in a row at that pace, against a 0.2% forecast. Sustained for a year, 0.3% a month is roughly 3.7%. Energy inflation slowed from 5.2% in September to 0.7% in October, yet the headline still beat expectations. Wolf Street, calculating from BLS index levels, put core services at +0.34% on the month, services excluding housing at +0.45%, and core goods at +0.39%, the largest since May 2023. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, as reported by Yahoo Finance, said inflation is broadening and that there is still work to do to bring inflation closer to 2%.

Oil is the telling detail. When the 10-year reached 5.18% in September, crude at up to $108 a barrel was one of the reasons. On November 10, Brent settled down 1.17% at $91.49 after dipping below $90 for the first time since August. Yields rose on a day oil fell. This move came from the breadth of inflation and from the Fed, not from energy.

The debate moved to the size of the hike. Hours before the CPI release, Governor Christopher Waller said in London that he was leaning toward a 25-basis-point increase in December, and that if October core CPI came in around 0.3% or higher, a 50-basis-point hike should be considered. His prepared text adds that hiking only 25 basis points would put the Fed's credibility at risk. Core then printed 0.3%.

The policy rate is 3.75% to 4.00%. Alex Pelle of Mizuho said the argument will be 25 versus 50 basis points, not zero versus 25. The 2-year is the maturity that most directly tracks the expected policy path, which is why it moved most.

A 10-year auction landed on the same day. The Treasury sold $42 billion of 10-year notes on November 10 at a high yield of 5.020%.

Bid-to-cover of 2.46 was below the ten-auction average of 2.54. Investing.com reported that the notes priced slightly above the prevailing trading level, meaning buyers needed extra yield. Peter Boockvar of One Point BFG, quoted by CNBC, said dealers were left with 10%, the most since May; Saxo called it the weakest demand for a 10-year sale since early June. The auction does not explain the whole move, though. CNBC noted the 10-year was already 12 basis points higher on the day before bidding closed. Supply kept yields from coming back down more than it pushed them up. Across the week the Treasury is selling $125 billion: $58 billion of 3-year notes on November 9, the $42 billion of 10-years, and $25 billion of 30-year bonds on November 12.

Bullish positions were unwound. The 10-year had fallen from 5.31% on October 5 to 4.84% on November 5. Saxo said the liquidation of long positions built during that decline amplified the selloff.

The term premium, the extra yield investors demand for lending long, is often cited as well. The Private Banker put the 10-year term premium at 0.91% on October 30 and argued that the rise in yields since May came from real yields, not inflation expectations. That figure rests on a single source here. On November 10 itself, short maturities rose more than long ones, so the Fed path was the main driver that day.

3. Not the first time at 5%: 2023, 2025 and autumn 2026

The level matches October 2023 to the basis point, but the meaning is the opposite. In 2023 the 2-year yielded more than the 10-year: markets expected rates to fall. Now the 2-year sits below the 10-year and 73 basis points above the top of the policy range: markets expect rates to rise. The 10-year is 98 basis points above the top of the policy range. The 2023 episode was 5% at the end of a tightening cycle. This one is 5% at the restart of one.

From September 23 through October 21 the 10-year closed above 5% every single day. This is a return to a level the market left three weeks ago, still 33 basis points below the October peak.

4. What 5% touches, and what is still open

Mortgages. US 30-year fixed mortgage rates follow the 10-year. The Mortgage News Daily index rose 12 basis points to 7.30% on November 10, erasing the decline to 7.17% to 7.18% seen from November 5 to 9. Freddie Mac's weekly survey stood at 7.18% on November 5, its third straight weekly drop, and does not yet reflect the move.

Stocks. Higher yields raise the discount rate applied to future profits, which weighs most on growth stocks. The Nasdaq fell 0.74% and the S&P 500 fell 0.38% on November 10, but Nvidia's drop of more than 5% that day had company-specific causes, and the Nasdaq rose 1.60% on November 11 with the bond market shut. The rate effect will be clearer once bonds trade again.

South Korea. Seoul received the move a day later, on November 11 local time. Korea is a useful gauge of spillover because its bond market is open to foreign futures flows and its central bank is also in a hiking cycle.

Korean yields rose 9 to 10 basis points across the curve, leaving the Korean 10-year about 1.03 points below its US counterpart. The currency did not follow the textbook: the won strengthened by 3.9 to 1,333.6 per dollar, on a day the Kospi rose 2.4%. The reason for the won's move was not confirmed. The Bank of Korea's policy rate is 3.00%, and its next meeting is November 26.

In short: the 5% print was intraday and the close was 4.98%; the cause was broad inflation and a debate over the size of the December hike, not oil; and the evidence is that the 2-year rose more than the 10-year. Whether the 10-year closes above 5% again can only be known once the bond market reopens.

Our earlier reports cover the October CPI details, the October 28 FOMC hold with two dissents in favor of a hike, the first move through 5% in September, and explainers on what the 2-year yield signals and why rising yields weigh on stock prices.