Marvell falls 8.2% on August 28, 2026 — $120bn from Google, but not until FY2029
Marvell Technology posted quarterly revenue of $2.739 billion on August 28, 2026, up 37 percent from a year earlier, with data-center revenue of $2.17 billion, up 46 percent and now 79 percent of the total. It raised annual guidance to about $12 billion for fiscal 2027 and about $18 billion for fiscal 2028. The stock nonetheless fell roughly 8.2 percent in premarket trade to about $222.51. The reason is timing: the custom-chip deal with Google, valued at up to $120 billion in revenue through fiscal 2033, only becomes a major revenue engine in fiscal 2029
The three lines
- Results — quarterly revenue $2.739bn (+37%); data center $2.17bn (+46%), 79% of the total
- Guidance — raised to about $12bn for FY2027 and about $18bn for FY2028
- Stock — down about 8.2% premarket, because the $120bn Google deal pays from FY2029
Key questions
- Why did Marvell stock fall if results beat?
- **Because of timing, not numbers.** The quarter beat: revenue of **$2.739 billion (+37%)**, data-center revenue of **$2.17 billion (+46%)**, and a next-quarter target of **$3.15 billion (+15% sequentially)**. Annual guidance went up too. But what investors were pricing was the custom-chip agreement with Google — and the company indicated that revenue from it only contributes meaningfully from **fiscal 2029**. Worse for the stock, that contribution was **already largely reflected in prior guidance**. It was neither new news nor new revenue. Shares fell about **8.2 percent to roughly $222.51** in premarket trade (another count put it at $223.1). The mechanism is the same one covered in "Why a stock falls on good results."
- What is the $120 billion Marvell-Google deal?
- **Marvell co-designs and supplies custom AI chips for Google, in an arrangement described as worth up to $120 billion in cumulative revenue through fiscal 2033.** Reports add that Google could take a stake in Marvell of up to **$12.2 billion** — customer and shareholder at once. The key qualifier is that **$120 billion is a cumulative figure spread over nearly eight years**, dependent on contract terms. That time axis is exactly what disappointed the market: the size is real, but it does not move the next few quarters. Google already runs its TPU programme with Broadcom; talks with Marvell have centred on a memory processing unit and an inference-optimised TPU.
- When is fiscal 2029 in calendar terms?
- **Marvell's fiscal year runs ahead of the calendar year.** Its fiscal 2027 covers most of calendar 2026 and ends in late January 2027. So **fiscal 2029 corresponds roughly to mid-2028 through early 2029** — about two years from August 2026. In semiconductors that lag is normal: a custom chip typically takes two to three years from spec freeze through design, validation and foundry ramp. The question is whether the share price had already booked that lag, and the market's answer that day was that it had booked too much of it.
Marvell Technology reported on August 28. The numbers were good.
The stock fell about 8.2 percent in premarket trade.
The cause was not the quarter. It was when the Google contract turns into money.
1. The numbers
| Item | Figure |
|---|---|
| Quarterly revenue | $2.739bn (+37% y/y) |
| Data-center revenue | $2.17bn (+46%) |
| Data-center share | 79% of total |
| Next-quarter target | $3.15bn (+15% q/q) |
Guidance went up as well.
| Fiscal year | Prior | Raised to |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | ~$11.5bn | ~$12bn (about +45% growth) |
| 2028 | ~$16.5bn | ~$18bn |
Guidance raised, stock down 8 percent. That combination is the whole story.
2. The problem is the time axis
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| Counterparty | Google (Alphabet) |
| Scope | Co-design and supply of custom AI chips |
| Size | up to $120bn cumulative through fiscal 2033 |
| Side term | Google may take a Marvell stake of up to $12.2bn (per reporting) |
| Revenue inflection | fiscal 2029 |
The sentence investors tripped on: the Google deal does not become a major revenue engine until fiscal 2029. And its contribution was already largely reflected in prior guidance — so there was no new number to buy.
3. What fiscal 2029 means on a calendar
| Marvell fiscal year | Roughly equivalent calendar period |
|---|---|
| 2027 | most of 2026 – January 2027 |
| 2028 | most of 2027 – January 2028 |
| 2029 | mid-2028 – early 2029 |
From August 2026 that is about two years out. In semiconductors that is a normal lag: two to three years from spec freeze to foundry ramp for a custom part. The question is how much of that lag the share price had already booked, and the market's answer was: too much.
4. Where Marvell sits — opposite Nvidia, not beside it
Marvell does not sell GPUs. It turns a hyperscaler's own chip specification into manufacturable silicon.
| Company | Role |
|---|---|
| Nvidia | Builds and sells general-purpose GPUs |
| Broadcom · Marvell | Co-design custom chips for Google, Amazon, Microsoft and others |
Together the two are estimated to hold about 95 percent of that co-design market, with Broadcom above 70 percent. Marvell has also worked on Amazon's Trainium and Microsoft's Maia.
The direction favours Marvell. Custom ASIC shipment growth is estimated to have overtaken merchant GPU growth for the first time in 2026 — roughly 44.6 percent against 16.1 percent. The concept itself is covered separately in "What custom AI chips (ASICs) are."
5. Two chip earnings, one week, opposite outcomes
| Company | Result | Stock |
|---|---|---|
| Nvidia (Aug 26) | Q2 revenue $96.2bn | market cap +$442bn |
| Marvell (Aug 28) | Revenue +37%, guidance raised | −8.2% premarket |
The difference is whether any surprise was left. How expectations set the price is covered in "What consensus is."
Sitting underneath both was the August 27 report that the US is weighing extending semiconductor tariffs to finished goods — covered in "US weighs a second round of chip tariffs." Sentiment across the sector was already compressed that week.
6. What we could not confirm
- The move — reported as both ~7 percent and 8.2 percent, at $222.51 or $223.1; the regular-session close is unverified.
- The stake — Google's potential $12.2 billion holding comes from reporting, not the contract.
- The $120 billion — a cumulative estimate through fiscal 2033 with undisclosed assumptions.
- EPS — earnings per share and the size of the beat were not checked here.
- Market share — the ~95 percent combined figure is a research-firm estimate.
Sources
- GuruFocus — Marvell Drops 8% as Google's $120 Billion Promise Arrives Too Late
- MarketScreener — Marvell shares slide as concerns over timing of Google AI deal revenue eclipse strong results
- MarketScreener — Marvell raises annual forecasts, but shares fall as Google deal questions linger
- Invezz — Marvell stock sinks 8%: is its $120B Google deal taking too long to pay off?
- 24/7 Wall St. — Marvell Falls 7% as Google AI Payoff Lands in Fiscal 2029
- TechStartups — Top Tech News Today, August 28, 2026