S&P 500 weekly +0.09% (August 31 – September 4, 2026) — the index went nowhere, oil went up 9%
The S&P 500 closed the week of August 31 to September 4, 2026 at 7,718.60, a gain of 6.84 points or 0.09 percent from the prior Friday close of 7,711.76 — effectively unchanged. Inside that flat number the direction reversed twice. Monday and Tuesday were lower as US strikes on Iranian targets lifted Brent crude above 95 dollars a barrel and pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.79 percent, the highest since January 2025. Wednesday and Thursday were higher, with a 1.06 percent gain on Thursday, after Fed governor Christopher Waller signalled he wanted to see August inflation data and September hike odds fell from 63 percent to roughly 50 percent. Friday reversed again when US August payrolls printed 162,000, about triple the consensus, with July revised from a loss to a gain. Across five sessions the equity index moved 0.09 percent while Brent crude moved close to 9 percent, settling at 96.28 dollars
The three lines
- Week — S&P 500 7,711.76 to 7,718.60, up 6.84 points or 0.09 percent, with two changes of direction
- Range — low close 7,631.47 on September 1, high close 7,747.71 on September 3, a spread of 116.24 points
- What moved — Brent at 96.28 dollars, about +9% on the week; the 10-year yield hit its highest since January 2025
Key questions
- Where did the S&P 500 close this week
- **7,718.60 on September 4**, up **6.84 points or 0.09 percent** from the August 28 close of 7,711.76. By session: August 31 **7,686.14** (−0.33%), September 1 **7,631.47** (−0.71%), September 2 **7,666.60** (+0.46%), September 3 **7,747.71** (+1.06%), September 4 **7,718.60** (−0.38%). The lowest close was September 1 and the highest September 3, a spread of **116.24 points**. The other indexes tell the same story. The Dow fell to **52,766.88** on September 1 (−419 points), climbed to **53,686.11** on September 3 (+624.16), and ended at **53,414.25** on September 4 (−271.86, −0.51%). The Nasdaq Composite went from **26,099.77** on September 1 to **26,506.99** on September 4 (−0.29% that day). **All three finished the week roughly where they started.**
- If the index went nowhere, what moved
- **Oil and rates.** Brent crude cleared **95 dollars a barrel** on September 1 after the United States resumed strikes on Iranian targets, and settled at **96.28 dollars** on September 4, up close to **9 percent** for the week. The stated causes were renewed US-Iran fighting after roughly a month's pause and uncertainty over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. On rates, the **10-year Treasury yield reached 4.79 percent** on September 1, the highest since January 2025, and on September 4 the **2-year yield** hit its own high on that measure. **The two moves had different causes.** The early-week rise was inflation expectations driven by oil; the Friday rise was policy expectations driven by employment, after the August payrolls report showed 162,000 new jobs against a forecast in the mid-50,000s. A long-dated yield and a short-dated yield rose in the same week for unrelated reasons.
- What happens at the September FOMC
- **Odds flipped twice inside the week and finished pointing toward a hike.** The sequence: on August 28 Fed chair Kevin Warsh leaned hawkish at Jackson Hole and September hike odds jumped from the 30s to 56 percent. On September 3 governor Christopher Waller said he wanted to see the August inflation data, and odds fell from **63 percent to about 50 percent** — the S&P 500 rose 1.06 percent that day. On September 4 the payrolls report landed at **162,000**, with July revised from −23,000 to +21,000, and odds rose again, reported between **53 and 65 percent** depending on the outlet. The meeting is **September 15–16**. The August consumer price index still sits between now and then, and with oil holding in the mid-90s that release has an upward pull on it. One caution on the number itself: a rate-move probability is not a poll of officials, it is derived from futures prices, so it varies with the contract used to compute it.
A week that finished +0.09 percent. Six and a bit points. It is hard to find a number that says nothing happened more emphatically.
Except that across those five sessions the market changed direction twice.
1. A week that ended where it started
| Date | S&P 500 | Change | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| August 28 (prior Friday) | 7,711.76 | baseline | Warsh at Jackson Hole |
| August 31 (Mon) | 7,686.14 | −0.33% | US strikes on Iran, oil rising |
| September 1 (Tue) | 7,631.47 | −0.71% | Brent above $95, 10-year at 4.79% |
| September 2 (Wed) | 7,666.60 | +0.46% | Treasury yields ease |
| September 3 (Thu) | 7,747.71 | +1.06% | Waller remarks, hike odds 63% → 50% |
| September 4 (Fri) | 7,718.60 | −0.38% | August payrolls 162,000 |
| Week | 7,718.60 | +0.09% | — |
The other two indexes matched the pattern. The Dow slid to 52,766.88 on September 1, rallied 624 points to 53,686.11 on September 3, then closed at 53,414.25 (−0.51%). The Nasdaq ended at 26,506.99 (−0.29%).
The gap between the week's lowest and highest closes was 116.24 points. It travelled that distance and came home.
2. Oil is what actually moved
| Item | Level | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Brent crude (September 4 settlement) | $96.28 | about +9% on the week |
| Brent crude (September 1 intraday) | above $95 | US strikes on Iran resume |
| US 10-year Treasury (September 1) | 4.79% | highest since January 2025 |
| US 2-year Treasury (September 4) | highest since January 2025 | after the payrolls release |
The cause of the oil move was not in the market. The United States resumed strikes on Iranian targets on September 1 after roughly a month's pause, and uncertainty over Strait of Hormuz shipping returned with it. On September 5, after the week closed, US Central Command said it had struck three Iranian crude carriers.
Higher oil raises inflation expectations, and inflation expectations raise yields. September 1 followed that chain exactly.
3. Two yield spikes, two different reasons
Treasury yields rose twice in the week, and the causes were unrelated.
First (September 1, 10-year at 4.79%) — inflation expectations, driven by oil. A long-dated yield prices years of inflation and growth.
Second (September 4, 2-year) — policy expectations, driven by employment. August payrolls came in at 162,000 against a forecast in the mid-50,000s, and July was revised from −23,000 to +21,000. The 2-year yield is the most direct reading of the expected policy path over the next year or two.
A strong labour market reading only hurts equities when a central bank is weighing tightening. That is the current regime, which is why good news arrived as a 0.38 percent decline.
4. What is still open
- The August CPI still sits before the September 15–16 FOMC. That is the release Waller said he wanted to see, and with Brent in the mid-90s it has an upward pull on it.
- The probability figure varies by source. September hike odds were reported between 53 and 65 percent, because the number is derived from futures prices rather than any poll of officials.
- The 10-year's direction on September 4 was reported both ways. One account had yields broadly higher; another had the 10-year falling from 4.818 to 4.77 percent. Short rates rising faster than long rates is a normal tightening pattern, but the settled figures were not checked.
- The oil story advanced over the weekend. How the September 5 tanker strikes are priced at the next open is the first thing to watch.
Sources
- Yahoo Finance — Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq drop as oil tops $95, bond yields rise (September 1)
- Yahoo Finance — Stock Market Today (Sept. 1, 2026): Nasdaq, Russell 2000 dip as U.S. strikes Iranian targets
- CNBC — S&P 500 posts back-to-back gains as Treasury yields retreat (September 3 session)
- CNBC — Stock market news for Sept. 2, 2026
- Yahoo Finance — Current price of oil as of September 4, 2026
- The Globe and Mail — Stock Market News for Sep 1, 2026