Why oil won't fall below $100 — Brent settled up at $104.72 despite Trump's no-strike pledge
Brent crude settled at $104.72 a barrel on October 9, 2026, up 0.42%, and WTI at $91.85, up 0.39%, according to Reuters — even though prices fell about 1% during the session after President Trump said no attack on Iran was planned before the November 3 midterms and that talks were productive. Physical supply losses outweighed the words: Kpler counted 10 tankers struck around the Strait of Hormuz in the week of September 28 to October 4, a record for the war, and Hurricane Isaias shut in about 1.3 million barrels a day, roughly 63% of US Gulf of Mexico output, before coming ashore near Destin, Florida as a Category 2 storm on the night of October 9
The three lines
- Settlement — Brent $104.72 (+0.42%), WTI $91.85 (+0.39%) on October 9, erasing an intraday drop
- Hormuz — record 10 tankers struck in one week; daily transits down to 7
- Hurricane — 63% of Gulf output shut in; Isaias landed in Florida, largely missing the refining hub
Key questions
- Why are oil prices not falling
- **Words lowered the risk, but physical supply was cut in two places.** | Factor | Direction | Detail | |---|---|---| | Trump: no strike planned before midterms | Down | About −1% intraday on October 9 | | Hormuz tanker attacks | Up | 10 tankers hit, September 28–October 4 (Kpler) | | Hurricane Isaias | Up | 1.3 million b/d of Gulf output shut in | | Outcome | — | Brent settled $104.72 (+0.42%) on October 9 |
- Hurricane Isaias oil impact
- **Offshore output stopped before landfall; the main refining corridor was largely spared.** | Item | Detail | |---|---| | Gulf output shut in | About 1.3 million b/d (about 63%, as of October 8) | | Landfall | Night of October 9 (US Eastern), near Destin, Florida, Category 2 | | Power outages | About 830,000–880,000 customers in Florida, Alabama, Georgia on October 10 morning | | Deaths | At least 4 (CBS, October 10 afternoon) | | Strategic Petroleum Reserve | Exchange releases approved for Exxon Mobil and BP |
- How many tankers attacked in Hormuz
- **The first week of October set the wartime weekly record.** | Source | Period | Attacks | |---|---|---| | Kpler | September 28–October 4 | 10 tankers (previous weekly high 6) | | US-led Joint Maritime Information Center | September 28–October 2 | 12 incidents | | Transits (Kpler) | October 6 | 7 tankers — under half the 7-day average |
The US president said no attack was planned, and oil still ended the day higher. President Trump said there was no plan to attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections and called talks with Tehran "productive." Prices fell about 1% during trading on October 9, 2026, but by the settlement Brent, the global benchmark, was up 0.42% at $104.72 a barrel and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) up 0.39% at $91.85, according to Reuters. The reason prices will not drop below $100 is not rhetoric but physical supply: oil was being blocked in two places at once, the Strait of Hormuz and the US Gulf of Mexico.
1. The week — below $100, then back to $104
| Date (local) | Brent | What happened |
|---|---|---|
| October 6 | $99.57 (−0.75%) | Hopes of recovering Middle East exports pushed it under $100 |
| October 8 | about $104.28 (5%+ intraday gain) | Surge in Hormuz tanker attacks + hurricane approach + reports of US strike planning |
| October 9 | $104.72 (+0.42%) | Fell on Trump's remarks, rebounded as hurricane shut-ins widened |
WTI moved between $90 and $92. Reuters said Brent was up for the week. The US Energy Information Administration put September's Brent average at $114, so prices have come down in October but are holding above $100. One factor pushed the other way: China, the world's largest crude importer, said it would resume refined-fuel exports paused over its Golden Week holiday.
2. Two floors — Hormuz and Hurricane Isaias
| Item | Strait of Hormuz | Hurricane Isaias |
|---|---|---|
| What was blocked | Gulf crude export route | US Gulf offshore output + refinery risk |
| Scale | 10 tankers struck, September 28–October 4 (Kpler) — previous weekly high was 6 | About 1.3 million b/d shut in, roughly 63% of Gulf output (as of October 8) |
| Traffic | 7 tankers transited on October 6 — under half the 7-day average, lowest since July 23 | Shell, Chevron and BP evacuated platforms |
| After landfall | — | Came ashore near Destin, Florida on the night of October 9 as a Category 2; 800,000+ customers lost power; at least 4 dead |
| Next variable | Iran weighing a US proposal to reopen the strait within 7 days | Speed of platform restarts — up to 2 weeks even without damage |
The Hormuz attacks are the most in any week since the US–Iran war began in February. On October 8 a tanker was hit by "multiple projectiles" with casualties, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations centre. About a fifth of the world's oil and fuel passed through the strait before the war.
Isaias, the Atlantic season's first hurricane, briefly reached Category 3 on October 9 before weakening and making landfall in the Florida Panhandle. Its eastward track spared Louisiana and the Mississippi River refining corridor. The two plants seen as most exposed beforehand — Chevron's Pascagoula refinery in Mississippi and the Vertex refinery in Alabama, together 466,000 b/d or 2.4% of US capacity — had no official damage update by October 10. The US Energy Department approved exchange releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to Exxon Mobil and BP to keep refineries running.
3. Why barrels beat words
| Item | Statements and reports | Physical supply loss |
|---|---|---|
| Nature | Shift expectations and risk odds | Reduce the oil actually reaching market |
| Reversal | One new headline can flip them | Only ends when shipping or facilities recover |
| October 8–9 example | Trump's "no attack planned" → about −1% intraday | Wider Gulf shut-ins → higher settlement |
That is why Trump's words only moved prices intraday. Around the same time, The New York Times reported the US had drawn up a three-day strike plan, and the Pentagon was said to be reviewing options. Dutch bank ING said prices could only fall sustainably once the remaining risks were resolved. The average US gasoline price was $4.36 a gallon, up 21 cents in a month.
4. What remains and what is unconfirmed
- Offshore restarts: Platforms restart only after crews return and inspect them — up to two weeks even without damage.
- Refinery status: Only one report says Pascagoula escaped damage. Confirmed outages or flooding could disrupt diesel and gasoline supplies for weeks.
- Hormuz talks: Iran's reply to the US seven-day reopening proposal could change the price direction.
- Price discrepancies: Outlets give October 9 prices from $102.80 to $104.72; this article uses the Reuters settlement.
- For Korea: South Korea mostly buys Dubai crude, so Brent moves do not pass through one-for-one. Korean markets reopen on October 12 after the Hangul Day holiday and the weekend.
Sources
- Yahoo Finance (Reuters) — Oil prices settle higher as more production shut ahead of hurricane
- Yahoo Finance — Oil falls to $103 as Trump says US will not attack Iran before the midterm elections
- CNN — Oil prices jump amid record tanker attacks in Hormuz
- CNBC — Hurricane Isaias disrupts U.S. oil production in Gulf of Mexico, threatens refineries
- Quartz — Hurricane Isaias shuts in 63% of Gulf of America oil output
- CBS News — At least 4 dead as weakened Isaias brings threat of floods across the Southeast