FOMC October 28 rate decision — a hold is priced above 90%, so why is everyone watching December 9?
The Federal Reserve meets October 27-28, 2026 and announces its decision at 2:00 p.m. ET on October 28 (3:00 a.m. on October 29 in Seoul). The target range is 3.75%-4.00%, and markets put the odds of a hold at 90-94%. With September CPI back up at 3.7%, a December 9 hike is priced at roughly 73-79%
The three lines
- Timing — decision 2:00 p.m. ET Oct 28; 3:00 a.m. Oct 29 in Seoul
- Odds — hold 90–94%; 94 of 100 economists in a Reuters poll expect a hold
- The catch — CPI 3.7%, payrolls +29,000; December 9 hike priced at 73–79%
Key questions
- fomc october 2026 date time
- **Decision at 2:00 p.m. ET on October 28.** | Item | US Eastern | Korea | |---|---|---| | Meeting | Oct 27–28 | Oct 28–29 | | Decision | Oct 28, 2:00 p.m. | Oct 29, 3:00 a.m. | | Press conference | Oct 28, 2:30 p.m. | Oct 29, 3:30 a.m. | | Next meeting | Dec 8–9 | Early Dec 10 |
- fed rate hold probability october 2026
- **Markets see a hold as highly likely.** | Gauge | Hold | Hike | As of | |---|---|---|---| | CME FedWatch | About 90.6% | About 9.4% | Oct 22 | | Prediction markets (Kalshi, Polymarket) | About 94% | About 6% | Oct 26 | | Reuters poll | 94 of 100 | — | October |
- will the fed raise rates in december 2026
- **Markets price a December 9 quarter-point hike at the high-70s percent.** | Gauge | December hike odds | |---|---| | Market pricing (Raisin summary) | About 73% | | Kalshi | About 76–79% | | Reuters poll economists | All expect a hike | | Range if hiked | 4.00%–4.25% |
This meeting's answer is all but settled. The market's real question is the next one. The Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee meets October 27-28, 2026 and announces its decision at 2:00 p.m. ET on October 28 — 3:00 a.m. on October 29 in Seoul.
The target range is 3.75%-4.00% after a quarter-point hike on September 16, the Fed's first increase in more than three years. A hold is widely expected now, but a rebound in September inflation has made a December 9 hike look more likely, not less.
1. Where things stand
| Date (ET) | Event | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| July 2026 | Hold | — |
| Sep 16, 2026 | +0.25pp (unanimous) | 3.75%–4.00% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | September CPI released | — |
| Oct 28, 2026, 2:00 p.m. | Decision (3:00 a.m. Oct 29 KST) | Hold expected |
| Dec 8–9, 2026 | Final meeting of the year | 4.00%–4.25% if hiked |
Chair Kevin Warsh, who took office in May, has scaled back forward guidance — the practice of signaling the future rate path — leaving markets with less visibility. At an International Monetary Fund event in Bangkok on October 16, he said he was not signaling a decision either way. His first major speech is covered in "Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech (August 28)."
2. What markets are betting
| Gauge | Oct 28 hold | Oct hike | Dec 9 hike | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CME FedWatch | About 90.6% | About 9.4% | — | Oct 22 |
| Prediction markets (Kalshi, Polymarket) | About 94% | About 6% | About 76–79% | Oct 26 |
| Market pricing (Raisin summary) | About 91% | — | About 73% | Oct 23 |
| Reuters poll of 100 economists | 94 | — | All | October |
| J.P. Morgan Wealth Management | Base case hold | — | About 0.5pp more before the cycle ends | October |
An October hold and a December hike are priced as a package. A month ago, fewer than half of market participants expected a December move. Inflation changed minds.
3. Prices up, hiring down
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| September CPI (y/y) | 3.7% (August 3.4%) | Hike |
| September CPI (m/m) | 0.6%, largest since April | Hike |
| September core CPI (y/y) | 2.6%, above expectations | Hike |
| September payrolls | +29,000, below expectations | Hold |
| Unemployment rate | 4.2%, edging up | Hold |
Inflation and jobs point in opposite directions, and Fed officials are split. New York Fed President John Williams said there may be "no need for urgency." In the September minutes, most participants saw another hike by year-end as likely justified. So this meeting is less about the rate than about how wide the statement and Warsh's press conference leave the door open for December.
The decision matters beyond the US. The Bank of Korea held at 3.00% on October 22 (see "Bank of Korea holds its rate at 3.00%"), and meets again November 26. A December Fed hike would widen the US-Korea gap at the upper bound from 1.00 to 1.25 percentage points.
4. What remains uncertain
- Odds move: Figures here are as of October 22–26 and will change before the decision.
- Statement and press conference: Even with a hold, the strength of any December signal is the real news.
- Next inflation print: October CPI, due in November, is the biggest input for December.
Sources
- Chase — Will the Fed Hike Rates in October? 50 Basis Points in Total Hikes Expected
- Raisin — Pre-FOMC preview: How to position savings ahead of the Fed (2026-10-23)
- DefiRate — Fed Rate Decision Odds: Oct. 28 FOMC Hike or Hold
- CNBC — Everyone expects the Fed to hold rates in October. Kevin Warsh could surprise us all (2026-10-16)
- Forbes — What To Look For From The Fed's October Meeting (2026-10-19)