September FOMC dates — September 15-16, and the last inflation print is September 11
The Federal Open Market Committee's September meeting runs September 15 and 16, 2026, and it is one of the four meetings a year that publishes the Summary of Economic Projections containing the dot plot. The rate decision arrives at 2:00 pm Eastern on September 16, with the press conference at 2:30. Two data releases remain before the vote: PPI and weekly jobless claims at 8:30 am Eastern on September 10, and August CPI at 8:30 am Eastern on September 11, which is the final inflation reading the committee will have. The Fed's communications blackout started on Saturday September 5 and continues through September 17, so nothing said by an official will shift expectations in the interim. The reference point is July CPI, published August 12, at 3.4 percent year on year with core at 2.5 percent and energy up 14.7 percent. Since the August employment report on September 4 showed 162,000 jobs, close to three times the consensus, futures have priced a 58 to 60 percent probability of a rate increase, not a cut
The three lines
- Dates — FOMC September 15-16 with a dot plot; decision 2:00 pm ET September 16
- Before it — PPI and claims September 10, August CPI September 11. Blackout began September 5
- Direction — markets are pricing a 58-60 percent chance of a hike, not a cut
Key questions
- When is the September FOMC meeting
- **Tuesday September 15 and Wednesday September 16, 2026, with the decision at 2:00 pm Eastern on the 16th.** Two things attach to this particular meeting. **① The Summary of Economic Projections, including the dot plot.** The Fed publishes projection materials at only four of its eight scheduled meetings each year; in 2026 those are March 17-18, June 16-17, **September 15-16** and December 8-9. The dot plot records where each participant expects rates to go, and **it often moves markets more than the decision itself.** ② **The chair's press conference** follows at 2:30 pm Eastern. The remaining 2026 meetings after this one are October 27-28 and December 8-9.
- What data comes out before the FOMC decides
- **Two releases, both this week.** The **Producer Price Index** and **weekly initial jobless claims** arrive at 8:30 am Eastern on **Thursday September 10**. **August CPI** arrives at 8:30 am Eastern on **Friday September 11**. **The CPI is the consequential one** — it is the last inflation reading before the vote four days later. The comparison point is **July CPI, released August 12**: headline **+0.1 percent** month on month and **+3.4 percent** year on year, core **+0.2 percent** and **+2.5 percent**. By component, energy was **+14.7 percent** year on year, shelter +3.2 percent and food +3.0 percent. **Watch energy.** Brent crude moved into the 90s in late August and reached 96.20 dollars on September 3. Oil feeds into CPI with a lag, so how much of that move landed inside the August window is the question the release answers.
- Is the Fed cutting or hiking
- **Markets are pricing a hike, at roughly 58 to 60 percent.** If that reads oddly, the last three weeks explain it. **August 27** — the Bank of Korea raised its policy rate to 3.00 percent. **August 28** — Chair Kevin Warsh gave his first Jackson Hole address, and the probability of a September increase jumped from the low 30s to **56 percent** in a day. **September 3** — dovish remarks from Governor Waller pulled it from 63 percent back to **50**. **September 4** — August payrolls came in at **162,000**, close to three times consensus and the largest gain in five months, and the probability returned to **58.4 percent** from about 49 percent immediately beforehand. **What kind of number this is matters.** The CME FedWatch probability is not a poll of the committee; it is **derived from federal funds futures prices.** It tells you where money is positioned, not what will happen. It also explains why outlets quote 58.4, 59.4 and 'about 60' — the value moves continuously. **And no new information is due.** With the blackout running from September 5 to September 17, only the September 10 PPI and September 11 CPI can move it before the vote.
This is a dot-plot meeting. That is usually the part that keeps moving markets after the decision itself has been absorbed.
1. Fix the dates first
| Item | US Eastern | Korea time |
|---|---|---|
| PPI · weekly jobless claims | Thu Sep 10, 08:30 | Sep 10, 21:30 |
| August CPI | Fri Sep 11, 08:30 | Sep 11, 21:30 |
| FOMC meeting | Tue Sep 15 – Wed Sep 16 | — |
| Decision + dot plot | Wed Sep 16, 14:00 | Sep 17, 03:00 |
| Press conference | Wed Sep 16, 14:30 | Sep 17, 03:30 |
The Fed publishes a Summary of Economic Projections at only four of its eight annual meetings. In 2026: March, June, September, December. This is one of them.
Two meetings remain after it — October 27-28 and December 8-9.
2. The baseline is July CPI
To read the August print you need what it is being compared against. That is the July report, published August 12.
| Component | Month on month | Year on year |
|---|---|---|
| Headline | +0.1% | +3.4% |
| Core (ex food and energy) | +0.2% | +2.5% |
| Energy | −1.5% | +14.7% |
| Shelter | +0.1% | +3.2% |
| Food | +0.1% | +3.0% |
Note that +3.4 percent and +0.1 percent sit in the same table. Almost nothing happened in the most recent month, but the twelve-month accumulation is 3.4 percent. When a series looks like that, when the increases occurred inside the last year determines the next print.
Energy at +14.7 percent is the clearest case. Brent moved into the 90s in late August and hit 96.20 dollars on September 3. Oil does not pass into CPI all at once. How much of that reached the August window is what September 11 answers.
3. The market is positioned for an increase
| Date | Event | September hike probability |
|---|---|---|
| August 28 | Warsh's first Jackson Hole address | low 30s → 56% |
| September 3 | Dovish remarks from Governor Waller | 63% → 50% |
| September 4 | August payrolls 162,000, ~3× consensus | 49% → 58.4% |
A hike, not a cut — that is the defining feature of this cycle. Since Warsh signalled a firm line on inflation at Jackson Hole, the market's centre of gravity has shifted.
But this probability is not a vote count. The CME FedWatch figure is derived from federal funds futures prices; it shows how money is positioned. That is also why quotes range across 58.4, 59.4 and "about 60" — different snapshots of a continuously moving value.
And nothing new is scheduled to arrive. The Fed's communications blackout runs September 5 through September 17. Only two events can move the number before the vote: PPI on September 10 and CPI on September 11.
4. What to watch from Korea
- The Bank of Korea already moved. It raised its policy rate to 3.00 percent on August 27. With the Korea-US gap narrowed, another Fed increase widens it again.
- The won is moving the other way. On September 7 the won traded as strong as 1,339.5 per dollar intraday, a level last seen 23 months ago. A Fed hike would push against that.
- US markets are closed on September 7 for Labor Day, leaving four trading days this week.
5. What remains unresolved
- No August CPI consensus was obtained. Only the confirmed July figures appear above, and on the day it is the gap against expectations that moves prices.
- The probability is a moving value. Quoting 58.4, 59.4 or 60 percent without a timestamp produces a wrong number within hours.
- The blackout dates come from reporting, not from a Fed notice we checked.
- The dot plot cannot be forecast. What lands in it for year-end and next year matters more than the decision, and no leading public information exists.
Sources
- Federal Reserve — FOMC Meeting calendars and information
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Consumer Price Index Summary, 2026 M07 Results
- Kiplinger — What to Look Out for in Economic Data This Week (September 7-11)
- Finance Calendar — US CPI Report September 2026: Date, Time & What to Expect
- Hankyung — Strong jobs lift September hike odds to 58%; three main indexes fall
- TokenPost — September Fed hike probability at 59.4%, now above hold