After the 17.91% day: Seoul's week of two tests
Korean brokerages see AI earnings and US jobs data deciding the KOSPI's August path
The three lines
- After the record rebound, weekend outlooks favour a staircase recovery over a V-shape
- One scenario brackets August between a 5,150 floor and consolidation up to 6,350
- AI earnings, US jobs data and foreign flows are named as the deciding variables
Key questions
- What is the KOSPI outlook after the record rally
- Brokerages expect volatility to compress first. The consensus shape is a staircase — establishing floors and climbing in steps — rather than an extension of the vertical rebound.
- How low could the KOSPI go in August
- One published scenario puts the worst-case floor near 5,150, with consolidation up toward 6,350. These are scenario boundaries, not forecasts, and they assume the July liquidation is genuinely finished.
- Should I buy Korean stocks now
- This article makes no recommendation. What is verifiable is the brokerages' scenarios and their assumptions; the decision and the risk are the reader's.
A week ago the Korean market tripped circuit breakers on consecutive days. On Friday it rose 17.91%, the largest single-day gain in its history. For global readers who saw both headlines and wondered which one to believe, the weekend's brokerage outlooks offer a usefully unexcited answer: neither — watch whether the volatility itself dies down.
1. What the outlooks say
Three points recur across the weekend notes. First, the July panic phase is judged to be over: the index that touched 5,262.77 intraday on 29 July closed the month at 6,595.45. Second, the favoured recovery shape is a staircase — confirming floors, then stepping higher — not a continuation of Friday's vertical move. Third, the variables named as deciding the path are US AI-related earnings, US employment data, and whether foreign investors keep buying.
One outlook attaches numbers: a worst-case floor near 5,150, with the index consolidating up toward 6,350 before establishing higher ground.
2. The numbers
| Item | Figure |
|---|---|
| July intraday low | 5,262.77 (29 July) |
| July close | 6,595.45 (+17.91% on the day) |
| Scenario floor | ~5,150 |
| Scenario ceiling | consolidation toward 6,350 |
| Named variables | AI earnings, US jobs data, foreign flows |
| Favoured shape | staircase, not V |
The fine print matters. Those boundary numbers assume the hedge-fund liquidation that drove July's selling is actually complete — an interpretation, not a confirmed fact, as this site noted when the rebound happened. Friday's roughly 7.2 trillion won of net foreign buying is the strongest evidence for it; one session is not proof.
3. What is still open
The verification order for the week ahead: daily foreign flows first (the fastest signal), US jobs data late in the week, then the AI earnings run. If foreign buying persists at scale, the floor scenario becomes academic. If it reverses, the staircase gets tested immediately.
This article recommends nothing. For readers who want the mechanics behind July's halts — Korea's three-stage circuit breaker system and why it fired three times in a month — a companion explainer runs the same day.