PC shipments fell 21% in Q3 2026 — memory went from 15% to nearly 40% of a PC's parts cost
Global PC shipments fell 20.1% to 22.4% year on year in the third quarter of 2026, depending on the tracker; Counterpoint's October 23 count was 57 million units, down 21%. The cause is DRAM and SSD prices driven up by AI data centers. Omdia estimates memory and storage rose from about 15% to nearly 40% of a PC's parts cost, and Counterpoint expects a 27% drop in the fourth quarter
The three lines
- Scale — all four trackers show a 20%-plus fall; Counterpoint: 57M units, -21%
- Cause — memory costs passed into PC prices; buyers postponed upgrades
- Outlook — Q4 seen down 27%; 2027 roughly flat with 2026
Key questions
- PC shipments Q3 2026
- **Every major tracker shows a drop of more than 20%.** | Tracker | Units | YoY | |---|---|---| | IDC | 62.7M | -20.1% | | Omdia | 58.1M | -21.2% | | Counterpoint | 57.0M | -21% | | Gartner | 55.4M | -22.4% |
- Why are laptop prices going up 2026
- **AI servers are absorbing DRAM and NAND supply.** | Metric | Change | |---|---| | Memory and SSD share of PC parts cost (Omdia) | ~15% → nearly 40% | | Q2 DRAM cost (Gartner) | 5x year on year | | Gartner February forecast | DRAM+SSD +130%, PC prices +17% |
- Top PC vendors Q3 2026
- **Lenovo stayed first; HP fell furthest (Counterpoint).** | Rank | Vendor | Units | YoY | |---|---|---|---| | 1 | Lenovo | 15.0M | -23% | | 2 | HP | 10.3M | -31% | | 3 | Dell | 7.6M | -25% | | 4 | Apple | 5.6M | -11% | | 5 | ASUS | 5.2M | -7% |
The AI boom's bill has landed on laptop price tags. Worldwide PC shipments fell more than 20% in the third quarter of 2026. After IDC, Gartner and Omdia, Counterpoint Research added its preliminary count on October 23: 57 million units, down 21%. The numbers differ; the diagnosis does not. It is memory.
1. How far shipments fell
| Tracker | Published | Units | YoY | QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IDC | Oct 8 | 62.7M | -20.1% | -9.1% |
| Omdia | Oct 9 | 58.1M | -21.2% | — |
| Gartner | Oct 12 | 55.4M | -22.4% | — |
| Counterpoint | Oct 23 | 57.0M | -21% | -13.8% |
The third quarter usually grows on back-to-school demand; IDC notes this year's 9.1% sequential decline reversed that pattern. The comparison base was also high, inflated a year earlier by Windows 10 end-of-support upgrades and pre-tariff buying.
2. Why — memory rewrote the bill of materials
| Metric | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| DRAM and SSD share of PC parts cost | ~15% → nearly 40% | Omdia |
| Memory price increase | More than fourfold | Omdia |
| Q2 DRAM cost | 5x year on year | Gartner |
| End-2026 DRAM+SSD forecast (February) | +130%, lifting PC prices 17% | Gartner |
| First-half inventory | Built early on price fears | IDC |
AI data centers take high-bandwidth memory, server DRAM and large SSDs first. PC memory supply tightens, prices jump, vendors pass costs to buyers, and buyers wait. Gartner says higher memory and storage costs are now "fully reflected" in PC prices. Vendors steering scarce memory into pricier configurations thinned the low end further.
For Korean memory makers Samsung and SK Hynix, the same shift works in reverse: wafers that would have gone into PCs sell for more as AI server parts. That is the flip side of the surge in Korea's chip exports earlier in October.
3. Who was hit hardest
| Rank | Vendor | Units (Counterpoint) | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lenovo | 15.0M | 26.3% | -23% |
| 2 | HP | 10.3M | 18.1% | -31% |
| 3 | Dell | 7.6M | 13.3% | -25% |
| 4 | Apple | 5.6M | 9.8% | -11% |
| 5 | ASUS | 5.2M | 9.2% | -7% |
| — | Others | 13.3M | — | -16% |
HP fell furthest. Apple, with its own chips and memory sourcing, and ASUS lost less and gained share. Business demand held up better than consumer, helped by fleet refreshes.
4. What comes next
- Q4: Counterpoint forecasts a 27% year-on-year drop, worse than Q3.
- 2027: Roughly flat with 2026. Counterpoint's David Naranjo warned that "stabilization should not be mistaken for recovery."
- Memory prices: Relief estimates range from late 2027 to 2028. None of the trackers expects a near-term fall.
Sources
- FoneArena — Global PC shipments Q3 2026 (Counterpoint)
- Gartner — Worldwide PC Shipments Declined 22.4% in Third Quarter of 2026 (2026-10-12)
- Tech Insider — PC Shipments Drop 20.1% in Q3 2026 as DRAM Soars (IDC, Omdia)
- Technology.org — Global PC Shipments Fall 21% in Q3 2026 as Memory Costs Climb (2026-10-23)